Nov 2, 2025

AI Capability Terrain

Pranati Modumudi

AI Capability Terrain Map is an interactive 3D early warning system that visualizes AI capabilities as literal terrain — with mountain peaks representing mastered abilities, rising hills showing emerging skills, and red sinkholes exposing tasks that AI systems should handle easily but consistently fail at.

The system integrates real-time benchmark data from Epoch AI to monitor capability progression and forecast future developments across more than 30 distinct AI domains. By combining empirical performance data with logistic growth modeling and Monte Carlo uncertainty quantification, it produces granular, capability-specific forecasts with confidence intervals — moving beyond generic “AGI timelines” to concrete capability trajectories.

Forecasting and Analysis Pipeline The forecasting component models benchmark performance over time using logistic growth curves fitted to historical data. Each forecast includes a 95% confidence interval, generated via Monte Carlo simulation, allowing users to account for uncertainty in future capability trajectories. The system also detects capability sinkholes — areas where progress stalls despite strong performance in related domains — revealing blind spots in current AI architectures and training paradigms.

Visualization and Interaction The 3D interface, built with React and Three.js, translates forecast data into an intuitive spatial landscape. Users can explore capability clusters, rising trends, and sinkholes in real time. Each terrain region dynamically updates as new benchmark results are integrated, making the map both an analytic and exploratory tool for researchers and policymakers.

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Cite this work

@misc {

title={

(HckPrj) AI Capability Terrain

},

author={

Pranati Modumudi

},

date={

11/2/25

},

organization={Apart Research},

note={Research submission to the research sprint hosted by Apart.},

howpublished={https://apartresearch.com}

}

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This work was done during one weekend by research workshop participants and does not represent the work of Apart Research.
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