Nov 2, 2025
AI Sentinel — AGI Multi-Metric Forecast Framework
tanzeel shaikh, hardik patel, hitesh kaushik
AI Sentinel is a transparent framework for forecasting the progress of artificial intelligence toward transformative milestones such as Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
It combines established scaling laws (Kaplan et al., 2020; Hoffmann et al., 2022) with modern time-series forecasting using Amazon Chronos-Bolt, a zero-shot forecasting model.
Using Epoch AI’s dataset of 2783 models (2017–2025), it tracks key metrics including training compute, parameters, cost, and efficiency.
The framework introduces composite indicators—Cognitive Efficiency Index (CEI), AGI Proximity Index (API), and Benchmark Growth Elasticity—to represent both scale and efficiency in AI progress.
AI Sentinel provides visual, reproducible timelines for understanding capability trends and estimating proximity to milestone ofAGI threshold (10²⁷ FLOPs)(Memory and FLOPS Hardware limits to Prevent AGI?).
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Cite this work
@misc {
title={
(HckPrj) AI Sentinel — AGI Multi-Metric Forecast Framework
},
author={
tanzeel shaikh, hardik patel, hitesh kaushik
},
date={
11/2/25
},
organization={Apart Research},
note={Research submission to the research sprint hosted by Apart.},
howpublished={https://apartresearch.com}
}


