Nov 23, 2025
BioCast AI
Muhammad Usman, Igor Muzin
BioCast AI is a deep learning powered system designed to forecast
global disease outbreaks using neural sequence models and advanced
machine learning ensembles. Our approach integrates three
architectures RNN LSTM and Bidirectional LSTM to capture long
term temporal patterns in more than forty years of global disease
data. In parallel we developed a feature rich ensemble model using
XGBoost LightGBM Random Forests and Gradient Boosting to
enhance predictive accuracy and stability.
We trained models on cleaned and imputed WHO style datasets
covering 1980 to 2024 generating country specific and disease
specific predictions for 2025. BioCast AI also includes a full
analytical pipeline with PCA correlation analysis, temporal
visualization clustering and dashboards to support epidemiological
decision making.
The system achieved strong performance across models with
ensemble methods outperforming individual networks in R² and
RMSE scores. Outbreak risk levels were derived using predicted case trajectories, trend ratios and statistical confidence intervals.
BioCast AI demonstrates how deep learning and ML ensembles can
support early warning systems, public health forecasting and global
disease surveillance.
No reviews are available yet
Cite this work
@misc {
title={
(HckPrj) BioCast AI
},
author={
Muhammad Usman, Igor Muzin
},
date={
11/23/25
},
organization={Apart Research},
note={Research submission to the research sprint hosted by Apart.},
howpublished={https://apartresearch.com}
}


