Nov 23, 2025

BioCast AI

Muhammad Usman, Igor Muzin

BioCast AI is a deep learning powered system designed to forecast

global disease outbreaks using neural sequence models and advanced

machine learning ensembles. Our approach integrates three

architectures RNN LSTM and Bidirectional LSTM to capture long

term temporal patterns in more than forty years of global disease

data. In parallel we developed a feature rich ensemble model using

XGBoost LightGBM Random Forests and Gradient Boosting to

enhance predictive accuracy and stability.

We trained models on cleaned and imputed WHO style datasets

covering 1980 to 2024 generating country specific and disease

specific predictions for 2025. BioCast AI also includes a full

analytical pipeline with PCA correlation analysis, temporal

visualization clustering and dashboards to support epidemiological

decision making.

The system achieved strong performance across models with

ensemble methods outperforming individual networks in R² and

RMSE scores. Outbreak risk levels were derived using predicted case trajectories, trend ratios and statistical confidence intervals.

BioCast AI demonstrates how deep learning and ML ensembles can

support early warning systems, public health forecasting and global

disease surveillance.

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Cite this work

@misc {

title={

(HckPrj) BioCast AI

},

author={

Muhammad Usman, Igor Muzin

},

date={

11/23/25

},

organization={Apart Research},

note={Research submission to the research sprint hosted by Apart.},

howpublished={https://apartresearch.com}

}

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This work was done during one weekend by research workshop participants and does not represent the work of Apart Research.
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