This project examines responses of LLMs to scenarios with different levels of uncertainty, and different types of uncertainty, with respect to "conflict severity" or "escalation" of their responses. While this is an interesting and empirically tractable question, I see a few areas of improvement to the theoretical basis and the operationalization of measures.
- The theoretical background motivating the hypothesis that uncertainty should lead to conflict escalation is not described, making it unclear what the theoretical impact of the findings would be. It is also unclear how hallucination relates to uncertainty perception. Thus, the introduction lacks some cohesion.
- Issues with validation of the IV. More scenarios should be included as well how the manipulation of their level and type of uncertainty was validated. Were these done by humans? Was it defined by systematic manipulation of objective variables by the researchers? How were the levels controlled in other respects, for example in terms of harms, violence, negative affect, or other relevant features?
- Validation of the DV. Relatedly, the operationalization of the dependent measure could be better described. ie., how is this scale of responses validated? How was this scale developed and how do we know what it means? What is a 'severe' response? How does that relate to the notion of "escalation"? How was this scoring performed exactly? How were raters instructed? Do other raters agree with each other?
- The "qualitative insights" noted regarding "diplomatic approaches" could easily be quantified with a rating scale. This would allow for stronger conclusions.