Nov 2, 2025
LUCR - Linking Utility and Compute Rate
Matthew Duffy
My project, LUCR (Linking Utility and Compute Rate), is an open-source forecasting model that quantifies "algorithmic efficiency". I built a two-stage Bayesian model to bridge Epoch's compute-capability data with METR's "subhuman" task benchmarks. The model's key output is the LUCR metric (dMETR / d(log C)), which treats algorithmic improvement as a measurable variable. This provides a policy-relevant tool to generate AGI timeline probabilities under "what-if" scenarios, like an "AGI Race" or "Compute Restrictions". The full pipeline is open-sourced and reproducible.
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Cite this work
@misc {
title={
(HckPrj) LUCR - Linking Utility and Compute Rate
},
author={
Matthew Duffy
},
date={
11/2/25
},
organization={Apart Research},
note={Research submission to the research sprint hosted by Apart.},
howpublished={https://apartresearch.com}
}


