Nov 23, 2025
Wastewater metagenomic surveillance for novel viruses: how much sequencing is enough, and at what cost?
Harry Gray
This project quantifies how well wastewater metagenomic sequencing can detect truly novel viruses, including low-shedding or AI-enabled “stealth” threats. Using a statistical model of viral abundance plus a binomial/logit-normal count model, it maps from incidence and sequencing depth to detection probability and then to concrete costs for different design choices. The results show that robust, tail-covering designs require far higher depths and budgets than median-case planning suggests, and that wastewater surveillance is powerful but cannot be relied on as a standalone universal early-warning system.
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Cite this work
@misc {
title={
(HckPrj) Wastewater metagenomic surveillance for novel viruses: how much sequencing is enough, and at what cost?
},
author={
Harry Gray
},
date={
11/23/25
},
organization={Apart Research},
note={Research submission to the research sprint hosted by Apart.},
howpublished={https://apartresearch.com}
}


