Apr 27, 2026
ABT-SIM: A tool for collaborative biorisk assessment
Jakub Nowak, Michał Skowronek
Biosecurity access controls are typically mapped along linear bioweapon development cycles, but adversaries may route around controls by choosing among design methods, material sources, and providers. We built ABT-SIM, a web-based prototype for modeling bioweapon development pathways as directed graphs with probabilistic nodes. Users can create scenarios spanning design through deployment stages, assign detection probabilities and capability requirements to pathway nodes, and model conditional probability flows through logic gates. The tool provides basic analytics including control effectiveness comparisons and outcome impact visualization. While still a prototype, ABT-SIM illustrates how interactive modeling tools could support more systematic biosecurity analysis. The platform provides a foundation for exploring adversary biorisk pathways though significant development would be needed to reach operational level. The work demonstrates potential value in dedicated tools for biosecurity-relevant analyses.
The project occupies a real gap in the practitioner tool landscape, since publicly accessible interactive tools for probabilistic adversary pathway modeling in the AI-bio context do not appear to exist elsewhere, and the choice to package event tree analysis with logic gates in a browser-based canvas with real-time recalculation is a real accessibility contribution even though the underlying analytical method has decades of precedent in nuclear safety, cybersecurity attack tree modeling, and academic biosecurity PRA work. The current framing treats Sandia's BioRAMs and similar tools as point-solution oriented, but the substantive differentiator is accessibility and the AI-bio routing framing, probably not a new analytical paradigm.
The deeper issue is that the methodological core sits in tension with the use case in a way the limitations section does not engage with. Event tree analysis works well when pathway structures are closed and finite, when probability inputs are estimable from data, and when conditional independence approximately holds, and adversary modeling in biosecurity satisfies essentially none of these conditions because pathways are open and adaptive, probabilities are elicited rather than measured, and adversary behavior produces strong dependencies between nodes that the multiplicative aggregation model ignores. The result is that the calculated outputs (the 56.7 percent exposure number, the tornado chart rankings, the outcome impact deltas) carry a degree of false specificity that the underlying estimation cannot support, and a user who took these numbers as predictive rather than illustrative would be putting more weight on them than the methodology warrants.
The idea is certainly interesting; I could imagine it being useful to those identifying gaps in mitigations or evals. That being said, in practice we mostly develop mitigations/evals by identifying steps common to many scenarios and don't do that much of this quantitative modeling work (which could take more time than actually developing the mitigation). Also, I'm not sure about the sources of these numbers/percent risks, so I don't know how to trust this. For infohazard reasons, I also wouldn't publish steps in threat pathways in any more detail than has been done already. Nonetheless, it's an interesting idea, and some of this modeling work is useful for informing AI mitigations.
Working prototype with real-time ETA propagation through AND/OR logic gates, which is good execution for a hackathon weekend. The framing (adversaries route around controls rather than following linear pipelines) is correct, but event tree analysis over directed graphs is a mature methodology and the novelty here is mainly the biosecurity-specific scenario seeding and collaborative UX. Validate with two biosecurity practitioners on a live scenario before the probability outputs are used for anything decision-relevant.
Cite this work
@misc {
title={
(HckPrj) ABT-SIM: A tool for collaborative biorisk assessment
},
author={
Jakub Nowak, Michał Skowronek
},
date={
4/27/26
},
organization={Apart Research},
note={Research submission to the research sprint hosted by Apart.},
howpublished={https://apartresearch.com}
}


