An iota of signal in a flood of noise: a stateful detector improves synthetic intrusion detection from 13% to 92%
Kevin Vaillancourt
Events viewed in isolation do not carry enough signal to cross the threshold into a security
event; the accumulation of events does. The detector averages an entity’s past events and scores the
average beside the current event. On synthetic campaigns calibrated to the timing and phase structure of
Hugging Face’s 108-hour incident, with false alarms capped at 5%, detection within 120 hours rises from
13% without memory to 92% with it. Controls show the advantage depends on ordered evidence staying
attached to the same entity; breaking that removes most of the gain. The evaluation uses four benign
entities per attacker; an earlier attackers-only result of 59% was an entity-age artifact and was replaced.
Rdet, the share of predictive information attributable to history rather than the current event, is a diagnostic
for whether history holds exploitable signal. These rates are properties of the synthetic generator, not
measurements of Hugging Face telemetry
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Cite this work
@misc {
title={
(HckPrj) An iota of signal in a flood of noise: a stateful detector improves synthetic intrusion detection from 13% to 92%
},
author={
Kevin Vaillancourt
},
date={
},
organization={Apart Research},
note={Research submission to the research sprint hosted by Apart.},
howpublished={https://apartresearch.com}
}


