Apr 26, 2026

EPICURUS AI: From Disease Forecasting to Pathogen Prediction

Igor Mizin, Svyatoslav Pizanov

EPICURUS AI is a system that began as a disease outbreak forecasting tool using historical case data and was expanded during the AIxBio Hackathon with bidirectional pathogen prediction. It bridges three domains: epidemiology, molecular biology, and vector ecology. The system works both ways: epidemiological parameters predict molecular traits, and molecular features predict epidemiological outcomes. This means we can estimate R₀, incubation period, and case fatality rate from genome features alone — critical for assessing AI-generated pathogens before they circulate. Built as a Streamlit prototype with switchable ML models, trained on curated data from WHO GLASS, WHO BPPL, SeqScreen, and peer-reviewed arbovirus datasets. Designed as a proactive defense tool against engineered biological threats.

Reviewer's Comments

Reviewer's Comments

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Suggest substantial trimming, adding dual use section, validation/code section with numbers. There's a lot of claims made that aren't supported by any evidence/validation.

Can't say the presentation didn't have style, but in the future I would strongly encourage you to move toward briefer write-ups for hackathons!

It's much easier for judges to evaluate the technical aspects of the methodology that way.

The actual hackathon contribution here doesn't arrive until page 23!

Basically everything up to that point is scene-setting, throat-clearing, or stylized preamble that isn't useful for this venue, where the only people likely to read this are very up-to-context on AIxBio.

When we do get to the meat of the proposal, it appears like more of a design sketch for what you're going to build than what you did build. There are no results or screenshots presented, and no details on the methods that I can really evaluate. Instead of choosing an algorithm and motivating it, this gets around the problem of carefully choosing a model by just making it a user drop-down. What hypothetical user in a biosecurity decision-making context is going to use a drop-down to decide how to model the data coming in?

The idea of mapping molecular features to epidemiological features with the pathogen dataset does make sense, and I'd like to see this kind of model fully fleshed out. I'm not sure running the training the other way with the epidemiological features as predictors really makes it bidirectional, but this is still an interesting idea.

I would hesitate to anchor too much on results that popped out of this model, though, without a more thorough treatment of confounds (R_0 does not just depend on molecular properties, for instance, and will vary a lot on population properties that this would not capture). It's also not clear that small models trained on 37 pathogens are going to provide any useful signal for novel pathogens, especially when the relevant features are just tabular. Predicting certain epidemiological features using molecular properties in tandem with info about host, population etc does seem possible and useful, but using small tabular datasets looks unlikely to me to uncover many non-trivial generalizable patterns.

I think there's a version of this that would still be cool as a hackathon project, and potentially as a direction to further explore, but the write-up mostly buries or does not provide details to evaluate.

Cite this work

@misc {

title={

(HckPrj) EPICURUS AI: From Disease Forecasting to Pathogen Prediction

},

author={

Igor Mizin, Svyatoslav Pizanov

},

date={

4/26/26

},

organization={Apart Research},

note={Research submission to the research sprint hosted by Apart.},

howpublished={https://apartresearch.com}

}

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This work was done during one weekend by research workshop participants and does not represent the work of Apart Research.
This work was done during one weekend by research workshop participants and does not represent the work of Apart Research.