How should the global south think and act about compute policy?
Adre Novais Xavier Rodrigues, Bruno De Biase Deo
We test whether the compute targets in Brazil's national AI plan (PBIA) are actually buyable with the budget the plan committed, and whether that spending is effective. We built an agent-based model with a 2,000-scenario Monte Carlo layer that turns each country's AI budget into installable frontier compute (FP64 PFLOPs, the TOP500 metric), gated by chip access, energy, and an endogenous chip price set by global demand. Brazil is the subject; the Gulf states, India, Egypt and Nigeria enter as competitors for the same scarce chips.
The plan's two compute targets, funded from one budget, diverge sharply: doubling national compute by 2027 is feasible in 100% of scenarios, while placing Santos Dumont in the TOP500 top five by 2029 is feasible in 0% (about 4% of the bar). The showcase target fails on framing and scale, not chips or energy: those add nothing, and even a tenfold budget reaches only ~7%. The verdict holds across every parameter extreme. Our takeaway for compute policy in the Global South: national compute goals should be written as absolute, budget-anchored targets sized to a country's own needs (running services, research, and evaluating deployed AI), not as positions in a moving global ranking that recedes at the frontier's growth rate.
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Cite this work
@misc {
title={
(HckPrj) How should the global south think and act about compute policy?
},
author={
Adre Novais Xavier Rodrigues, Bruno De Biase Deo
},
date={
},
organization={Apart Research},
note={Research submission to the research sprint hosted by Apart.},
howpublished={https://apartresearch.com}
}


