Permissive Models, Unequal Risk: Auditing AI Identity-Document Forgery as a Systemic Infrastructure Risk
Sebastian Soto
Two 2021 breaches exposed the identity records — including ID photographs — of essentially all of Argentina (RENAPER, ~45M, attacker-claimed) and Brazil (the megavazamento, ~223M). Frontier text-to-image models supply the forgery half, recomposing leaked photos into credentials that defeat appearance-based KYC. Our thesis: identical model behavior yields unequal societal risk — where one leaked, cosmetically-verified credential gates civil and financial life and AI collapses the marginal cost of forgery at scale, danger is set by identity infrastructure, not model behavior. To show the model layer is an unreliable control, we release DocRefusal, a vendor-neutral refusal scorecard (model × jurisdiction × escalation × language) across six models (key cells 5× on three): refusal is a model property — large, replicated provider differences, not a capability gradient — and single draws overstate (“English→Spanish flips” were artifacts; a weak Spanish lean survives). We map source-grounded, coordination-aware controls to FATF 2025.
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Cite this work
@misc {
title={
(HckPrj) Permissive Models, Unequal Risk: Auditing AI Identity-Document Forgery as a Systemic Infrastructure Risk
},
author={
Sebastian Soto
},
date={
},
organization={Apart Research},
note={Research submission to the research sprint hosted by Apart.},
howpublished={https://apartresearch.com}
}


