Jun 14, 2025
Red Teaming Policy 5 of A Narrow Path: Evaluating the Threat Resilience of AI Licensing Regimes
Desmond, Wyatt Snyder
This report presents a red teaming analysis of Policy 5 from A Narrow Path, ControlAI’s proposal to delay Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) development through national AI licensing. Using a simplified PASTA threat modeling approach and comparative case studies (FDA, INCB, and California SB 1047), we identified two critical failure modes: regulatory capture and lack of whistleblower protections.
We developed a custom policy CVSS framework to assess cumulative risk exposure across each case. Due to time constraints, we used ChatGPT-assisted simulation to complete the results section and illustrate potential findings from our scoring method.
Our analysis suggests that, as written, Policy 5 is vulnerable to institutional influence and lacks sufficient safeguards to ensure enforcement. We recommend clearer accountability structures, built-in whistleblower protections, and stronger international coordination to make the policy more resilient.
Tolga Bilge
I think the possibility of regulatory capture of national regulators is a real concern and Gatling and Snyder are right to highlight it.
Their comparison tables seem useful.
I think their recommendations on accountability structures and whistleblower protections make sense. International coordination is sort of out of the scope of this policy, but I think it also makes sense to highlight it.
Dave Kasten
Appreciate the focus on specific failure modes, and the attempt to bring in an analytic framework. The emphasis on need to avoid regulatory capture and protect whistleblowers is fair. However, the discussion was overall fairly difficult to follow and lacked some of the argumentative depth about _why_ these were the most important considerations that need to be addressed that we were looking for.
Cite this work
@misc {
title={
@misc {
},
author={
Desmond, Wyatt Snyder
},
date={
6/14/25
},
organization={Apart Research},
note={Research submission to the research sprint hosted by Apart.},
howpublished={https://apartresearch.com}
}
