Apr 28, 2025
The Early Economic Impacts of Transformative AI: A Focus on Temporal Coherence
Félix Dorn, Xavier Ferrés, Elsie Jang, Valmik Nahata
🏆 1st place by peer review
Summary
We investigate the economic potential of Transformative AI, focusing on "temporal coherence"—the ability to maintain goal-directed behavior over time—as a critical, yet underexplored, factor in task automation. We argue that temporal coherence represents a significant bottleneck distinct from computational complexity. Using a Large Language Model to estimate the 'effective time' (a proxy for temporal coherence) needed for humans to complete remote O*NET tasks, the study reveals a non-linear link between AI coherence and automation potential. A key finding is that an 8-hour coherence capability could potentially automate around 80-84\% of the analyzed remote tasks.
Cite this work:
@misc {
title={
The Early Economic Impacts of Transformative AI: A Focus on Temporal Coherence
},
author={
Félix Dorn, Xavier Ferrés, Elsie Jang, Valmik Nahata
},
date={
4/28/25
},
organization={Apart Research},
note={Research submission to the research sprint hosted by Apart.},
howpublished={https://apartresearch.com}
}