"We Removed It" Is Not a Measurement: Equivalence Bounds for Remediation Claims
Aayush Gandhi
Remediation results are conventionally reported as: apply the intervention, re-run the audit, observe the loyalty is no longer detected, conclude it was removed. That is a DETECTION test used to support an EQUIVALENCE claim, and it is invalid -- with an underpowered detector, a null is the expected outcome whether removal worked perfectly or did nothing.
We make the error quantitative. Simulating over the real audit stack at its actual sample size (n=12), we compute P(null verdict | true residual loyalty) and invert it to get the tightest upper bound a null can place:
sigma=0.25 (calibrated judge): residual up to 0.20 CANNOT be excluded
sigma=0.40 (heuristic scorer): residual up to 0.30 CANNOT be excluded
sigma=0.55 (noisy heuristic): residual up to 0.40 CANNOT be excluded
On a [-1,1] favorability scale, a post-ablation ABSTAIN is compatible with a residual loyalty of 0.20-0.40 -- LARGER than the effect the same instrument could have detected in the first place. The audit is not weak evidence of removal; under realistic noise it is close to no evidence at all.
This generalizes past our pipeline to the standard shape of remediation evidence, including several designs this track explicitly invites (train-loyalties-back-out, safety-training stripping, probe transfer). Each answers "did we still find it?" when the claim is "is it gone?"
The fix is one line: report a bound, not a verdict. "Post-intervention audit: ABSTAIN. Residual > 0.30 excluded at 80% confidence; residuals <= 0.30 remain consistent." That converts an unfalsifiable claim into a falsifiable one.
Scoping: these numbers characterize the instrument, not a model. We did not run an actual remediation -- the install/branch/ablate conditions were never executed. No claim is made that any loyalty was or was not removed.
No reviews are available yet
Cite this work
@misc {
title={
(HckPrj) "We Removed It" Is Not a Measurement: Equivalence Bounds for Remediation Claims
},
author={
Aayush Gandhi
},
date={
},
organization={Apart Research},
note={Research submission to the research sprint hosted by Apart.},
howpublished={https://apartresearch.com}
}


