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Sprint projectNov 23, 2025Saarbrücken

BioCast AI

Mohammed Usman, Igor Muzin · Team Sunag Parasu Nagesh

Submitted to Defensive Acceleration Hackathon. Sprint projects are early-stage work by participants, not Apart Research publications.

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Report: BioCast AI

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BioCast AI is a deep learning powered system designed to forecast global disease outbreaks using neural sequence models and advanced machine learning ensembles. Our approach integrates three architectures RNN LSTM and Bidirectional LSTM to capture long term temporal patterns in more than forty years of global disease data. In parallel we developed a feature rich ensemble model using XGBoost LightGBM Random Forests and Gradient Boosting to enhance predictive accuracy and stability. We trained models on cleaned and imputed WHO style datasets covering 1980 to 2024 generating country specific and disease specific predictions for 2025. BioCast AI also includes a full analytical pipeline with PCA correlation analysis, temporal visualization clustering and dashboards to support epidemiological decision making. The system achieved strong performance across models with ensemble methods outperforming individual networks in R² and RMSE scores. Outbreak risk levels were derived using predicted case trajectories, trend ratios and statistical confidence intervals. BioCast AI demonstrates how deep learning and ML ensembles can support early warning systems, public health forecasting and global disease surveillance.

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Does this reduce AI-related catastrophic or existential risks?

Scoring guide
  1. 1Minimal Impact. The project has minimal relevance to AI safety. It doesn't meaningfully address risks uniquely enabled or accelerated by advanced AI systems.
  2. 2Tangential Connection. The project touches on AI safety concepts but lacks depth or specificity. The connection to AI-enabled threats (bio, cyber, or AI misuse) is weak or unclear.
  3. 3Clear AI Safety Value. The project clearly reduces AI-related risks with valuable contributions. It addresses specific threats from AI systems and engages meaningfully with biosecurity, cybersecurity, or AI safety challenges.
  4. 4Significant Impact Potential. The above, plus the project demonstrates scalable safety mechanisms or defensive approaches. It shows clear potential to buy time for solving harder problems like alignment, or creates positive externalities for the broader AI safety ecosystem.
  5. 5Major Advancement. The above, plus the project represents a significant leap forward in defensive AI safety. Judges would eagerly share this with biosecurity, cybersecurity, or AI safety researchers and expect it to influence the field.

Does this strengthen the shield against AI-enabled threats?

Scoring guide
  1. 1Minimal Relevance. The project is only tangentially related to defensive technology or societal protection. Connection to biosecurity, cybersecurity, or defensive infrastructure is unclear or missing.
  2. 2Some Relevance. The project has some relevance to defensive acceleration, but the connection is broad or generic. It touches on defense without specific focus on AI-enabled threats or protective capabilities.
  3. 3Clear Relevance. The project clearly addresses defensive gaps against AI-enabled threats. It connects to at least one track (biosecurity, cybersecurity, or defense infrastructure) and demonstrates understanding of the threat landscape.
  4. 4Strong Contribution. The above, plus the project builds on existing defensive approaches and offers novel tools, frameworks, or implementations. It explicitly explains how it strengthens defensive capabilities with realistic deployment potential.
  5. 5Breakthrough Impact. The above, plus the project provides breakthrough insights or tools that could significantly influence defensive technology development. It identifies critical gaps and presents compelling solutions with clear paths from prototype to deployed system.

Did you build something that actually works?

Scoring guide
  1. 1Incomplete or Flawed. The project appears rushed or incomplete. Technical implementation is flawed, core functionality doesn't work, or the approach is fundamentally unsound. Little to no documentation.
  2. 2Basic Competence. The project shows reasonable effort with basic technical competence. Core functionality partially works. Documentation exists but may be incomplete. Some limitations are acknowledged.
  3. 3Solid Hackathon Project. The project is technically solid and well-scoped for 48 hours. Core functionality works and is documented. Code/methods are understandable and limitations are honestly addressed. This is what a good weekend prototype should look like.
  4. 4Impressive Implementation. The above, plus the implementation exceeds typical hackathon quality. Clear methodology, thorough documentation, and working demo. The tool/prototype is immediately useful for defenders and could realistically be built upon.
  5. 5Exceptional Execution. The project far exceeds expectations with exceptional technical execution. The implementation is elegant, fully functional, and includes something special (e.g., deployed demo, exceptional documentation, innovative architecture, or clear startup potential).

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Cite this project

@misc{usman2025biocast,
  title = {{BioCast AI}},
  author = {Mohammed Usman and Igor Muzin},
  year = {2025},
  month = nov,
  note = {Submitted to Defensive Acceleration Hackathon, an Apart Research Sprint},
  howpublished = {\url{https://apartresearch.com/sprints/projects/biocast-ai-v8s3}},
  url = {https://apartresearch.com/sprints/projects/biocast-ai-v8s3}
}

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