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Sprint projectNov 2, 2025Almaty

Threat Snapshot

Arslan Akishev, Amir Kaiyrbek, Ali Kurman, Ansar Tleubayev, Madi Zhassymbek · Team CAIR

Submitted to The AI Forecasting Hackathon. Sprint projects are early-stage work by participants, not Apart Research publications.

We developed a real-time security evaluation system for open-source large language models (LLMs). Using a novel threat snapshot approach, the system isolates decision points where models may fail under adversarial prompts. It combines an adaptive multi-turn probing algorithm with a dual-inspector ensemble (Mistral-7B and Llama-2-7B) to detect vulnerabilities and reduce bias.

Tested on 100 newly released models, it achieved 0.89 danger detection accuracy, revealing that 34% of models appearing safe at first became unsafe under deeper probing. This framework enables continuous, automated monitoring of open-source AI models, bridging the gap between release and security assessment.

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Does the project meaningfully advance AI timeline prediction and capability forecasting? Does it clearly connect to measurable indicators of AI progress (compute, benchmarks, economic impacts, automation milestones)? Does it build on or challenge existing forecasting frameworks like biological anchors, scaling laws, or scenario planning? Does it offer novel methodologies, data sources, or empirical insights that could improve forecast accuracy? Is it grounded in observable trends rather than pure speculation?

Does this project inform critical decisions about AI development and preparedness? Does it help identify key uncertainties, decision points, or early warning indicators? How well does the project connect technical metrics to real-world impacts and policy needs? Could the output guide resource allocation, safety research priorities, or regulatory timelines? Does it reduce uncertainty around transformative AI milestones or capability emergence?

Is the project methodologically rigorous, reproducible, and technically sound? Is the forecasting approach well-calibrated with appropriate uncertainty quantification? Are the data sources, assumptions, and limitations clearly documented? Does the project demonstrate sound statistical methodology and honest treatment of model uncertainties? Would the tool, model, or framework be useful for ongoing forecasting efforts, research planning, or policy analysis?

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Cite this project

@misc{akishev2025threat,
  title = {{Threat Snapshot}},
  author = {Arslan Akishev and Amir Kaiyrbek and Ali Kurman and Ansar Tleubayev and Madi Zhassymbek},
  year = {2025},
  month = nov,
  note = {Submitted to The AI Forecasting Hackathon, an Apart Research Sprint},
  howpublished = {\url{https://apartresearch.com/sprints/projects/threat-snapshot-1r9q}},
  url = {https://apartresearch.com/sprints/projects/threat-snapshot-1r9q}
}

Build something like this at the next Sprint

AI Collusion Research Sprint · Oct 23 - 25, 2026