Calling the Bluff: Forced-Deviation Audits of LLM Pricing Agents That Punish Slowly
Noah Assefa, Basel Abuhawi, Yassr AboZaid, Hamed Aldhubayb · Team NABYS
Submitted to AI Collusion Research Sprint. Sprint projects are early-stage work by participants, not Apart Research publications.
Pricing agents built on large language models generally converge to keeping prices high without being told to collude in supracompetitive environments, and auditors need a way to tell when collusion occurs. Tran and Yu (2026) proposed a forced-deviation audit in which they ran a market scenario where they forced one agent to cut its price and checked whether the rival punishes it in the next period. We show that this one-period test can miss agents that may change slowly, or respond with stickiness. A scripted rival that punishes but moves only 8% toward its target price scores +0.086 on the one-period test, indicating no punishment. We propose a dynamic baseline that predicts how a slow rival that does not punish would respond, and we score the rival against it. The same punisher scores −0.571, and a slow non-punisher scores zero even with the cut persisting over periods. When Claude Haiku 5.5 is instructed to punish cuts, the one-period test misses it in all four usable forks, because the agent acts one period late, while the dynamic measure detects it in all four. Auditing uninstructed Haiku 5.5 (12 runs, 48 cuts, ρ̂= 0.92), the one-period test finds no punishment (+0.057, 95% CI 0.049 to 0.065), while the dynamic measure finds a response below the non-punishing baseline (−0.534, 95% CI −0.856 to −0.194) that is specific to cuts but too weak to make cutting unprofitable. This experiment further highlights the importance for audits of capturing how slowly an Agent moves before punishment.
Reviews
No public critique yet.
Cite this project
@misc{assefa2026calling,
title = {{Calling the Bluff: Forced-Deviation Audits of LLM Pricing Agents That Punish Slowly}},
author = {Noah Assefa and Basel Abuhawi and Yassr AboZaid and Hamed Aldhubayb},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
note = {Submitted to AI Collusion Research Sprint, an Apart Research Sprint},
howpublished = {\url{https://apartresearch.com/sprints/projects/calling-the-bluff-forceddeviation-audits-of-llm-pricing-agents-that-punish-slowly-kd12}},
url = {https://apartresearch.com/sprints/projects/calling-the-bluff-forceddeviation-audits-of-llm-pricing-agents-that-punish-slowly-kd12}
}More from AI Collusion Research Sprint
- View project: Collusion, Competion and Collapse
Collusion, Competion and Collapse
Atelier Alex Cline
Do AI traders collude when nobody tells them to? We built agora, a six-market benchmark with exact competitive and collusive benchmarks, and ran seven open-weight 2-4B models in 590 completed games under five …
- View project: Making AI Guardrails Understandable and Testable: A Framework Illustrated by a Simulated Bond Market
Making AI Guardrails Understandable and Testable: A Framework Illustrated by a Simulated Bond Market
Rogue Agents in Jail 🕵️🕵️♀️👮♂️
In order to advance AI safety research into shaping public policy, the development of technical controls needs to have a clear purpose, evidence, and limitations that are understandable for the people responsible for …
- View project: Extending Information-Theoretic Collusion Detection to Large Language Model Agents
Extending Information-Theoretic Collusion Detection to Large Language Model Agents
Gamma Ray
We test whether the information-theoretic collusion detector of Bonjour et al, validated on scripted agents, works on LLM agents. Gemma, Mistral and Qwen played 1000 rounds of three-player Rock-Paper-Scissors in three …