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Sprint projectJun 22, 2026Tijuana

Can-You-Predict-a-Network-Without-Running-It-

GERMAN ALFARO

Submitted to Global South AI Safety Hackathon. Sprint projects are early-stage work by participants, not Apart Research publications.

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Report: Can-You-Predict-a-Network-Without-Running-It-

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Can we predict a neural network’s expected behavior by analyzing its structure rather than running it on many inputs? We address this question in the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge 2026: given white-box access to random 256×32 ReLU MLPs and a fixed FLOP budget, estimate the expected final-layer activations under Gaussian inputs. Starting from plain Monte Carlo (MC), we developed a production estimator combining input whitening, antithetic sampling, and algebraic FLOP optimizations

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How much would this matter for AI safety if it worked? How innovative is it? For scores of 4-5: is this actually new to the field, or replicating recent work?

Scoring guide
  1. 1Negligible. No clear problem addressed, or no meaningful novelty.
  2. 2Limited. Addresses a real problem but with a generic or well-trodden approach. Incremental at best.
  3. 3Moderate. Clear problem with a reasonable approach; some novelty in framing or method beyond routine application of existing tools.
  4. 4Significant. Important problem with an original approach, or identifies a neglected problem area. A valuable contribution others could build on.
  5. 5Exceptional. Tackles a critical AI safety problem with a genuinely novel approach, or opens a new research direction. Clear theory of change. You'd be excited to share this with researchers in the area.

How sound are methodology, implementation, and findings?

Scoring guide
  1. 1Seriously flawed. Methodology broken, results uninterpretable, or implementation doesn't work.
  2. 2Weak. Approach has significant gaps: missing validation, flawed experimental design, or incomplete implementation.
  3. 3Competent. Technically solid given the short duration. Methodology makes sense, results are interpretable, limitations acknowledged, work builds toward clear conclusions.
  4. 4Strong. Thorough methodology with convincing validation. Results clearly support conclusions. Immediately useful for future work.
  5. 5Exceptional. Ambitious scope executed rigorously. Surprising findings, novel methods, or unusually robust validation.

How clearly are work, findings, and impact potential communicated?

Scoring guide
  1. 1Incomprehensible. Cannot determine what the project is actually claiming or doing.
  2. 2Hard to follow. Key information buried, missing, or diluted by excessive length. Significant effort to extract main points.
  3. 3Clear enough. Can understand the problem, approach, and results without undue effort. Core content clearly present: problem, method, findings, limitations.
  4. 4Well presented. Easy to follow, well-structured, appropriate level of detail. Target audience would get it quickly.
  5. 5Exceptionally clear. A pleasure to read. Complex ideas made accessible. Could serve as a model for how to present this type of work.

  1. Choosing the ARC challenge seems like a great choice. I'm not knowledgeable enough about the contest to know how strong this submission is compared to the other ARC submissions, which made it hard to evaluate the paper. Ideally the abstract would say something like "our submission ranked 100th among 232 submissions to ARC" or something along those lines. They compare their solution to the best performing one, but don't give a good intuition for how far away they were from the top in a metric that I can immediately grasp.

    One big challenge for this submission is that the content is very technical, such that the writing must be very high-quality to make it easy for reviewers from other areas to assess. I think passing the write-up to an LLM and asking "what parts here would be confusing to a very smart technical reader from a different field" would highlight many places of improvement.

    Still, I think this was overall a very good submission for the hackathon, and I could see myself cataloguing it as a top contender if it did really well on the ARC competition rankings

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  2. It's hard for me to judge this project because I'm not familiar with the neural network estimation literature. I appreciate that you reported performance on the ARC benchmark, but the improvement is hard to read: What does the score mean, and how big if a deal is a x1.9 improvement? Adding confidence intervals would also help readers understand how much better your pipeline performs than the baseline.

  3. Hey! Super cool, this is a strong optimization for a real ARC safety-adjacent problem. Congratulations!

    If I understand correctly, the ARC challenge is motivated by compute-bounded auditing, but the current setting is still far from frontier models. The AI safety framing would be stronger if you made the bridge to LLM auditing more explicit: what exactly would be estimated, where forward passes are expensive, and when a structural estimator would help.

    A one-command reproduction path for the official score would make this much easier to evaluate and trust. I may have missed it, but I did not see a simple GitHub command that reproduces the submitted score.

  4. It's a good problem to tackle and there seems to be interesting ideas in the project. Although it is quite difficult to follow what the method is within the time frame specified for this review. I can't add points for the problem choice because it is a well established challenge so I have to judge only the methodology, which is unfortunately hard to follow.

    Also I don't see a clear presentation of what the results were exactly (what does it mean to be 1.9x better than the benchmark? what are the scores measuring? maybe this is clear for someone very familiar with the WhiteBox ARC challenge but it is not made clear in the paper).

Cite this project

@misc{alfaro2026canyoupredictanetworkwithoutrunningit,
  title = {{Can-You-Predict-a-Network-Without-Running-It-}},
  author = {GERMAN ALFARO},
  year = {2026},
  month = jun,
  note = {Submitted to Global South AI Safety Hackathon, an Apart Research Sprint},
  howpublished = {\url{https://apartresearch.com/sprints/projects/canyoupredictanetworkwithoutrunningit-u7mj}},
  url = {https://apartresearch.com/sprints/projects/canyoupredictanetworkwithoutrunningit-u7mj}
}

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