Inherited Collusion: Replacing an Overcharging AI Pricing Agent Doesn't Fix It, but One Past Example of a Cheaper Price Earning More Can
zhen hong
Submitted to AI Collusion Research Sprint. Sprint projects are early-stage work by participants, not Apart Research publications.
If an AI pricing agent is caught overcharging, the obvious remedy is to replace it. We test whether that restores competition. In a simulated two-firm market, two gpt-4.1-mini agents first settle on a high shared price; one is then replaced by a fresh agent that is never told to collude and inherits its firm's price history, while the other firm keeps its price and cannot punish undercutting. Across 20 histories and three newcomer models, the newcomer kept most of the overcharge above its best response to the incumbent's price: gpt-4.1-mini 73%, Qwen3-14B 97%, Claude Haiku 5.5 89%. A newcomer with no history kept the price high too, copying its competitor, so the record is not what sustains the price. Pre-registered levers mostly failed: relabelling the history as a predecessor's, messages from "management", and instructions to compete barely moved prices. What worked was one row in the newcomer's own history showing a lower price that earned more, whether real or inserted: it removed the overcharge for gpt-4.1-mini, halved it for Qwen3-14B and cut it by a sixth to a quarter for Haiku. A sham round and a zero-profit row did nothing; the competitor's low price did far less. For gpt-4.1-mini the change held against a live competitor that never retaliated, lasted 80 rounds and survived deleting the row. At a fixed price, the sales and profit a row reported decided whether gpt-4.1-mini adopted it. A high-price row showing high profit raised prices, so inherited records are an attack surface.
Reviews
No public critique yet.
Cite this project
@misc{hong2026inherited,
title = {{Inherited Collusion: Replacing an Overcharging AI Pricing Agent Doesn't Fix It, but One Past Example of a Cheaper Price Earning More Can}},
author = {zhen hong},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
note = {Submitted to AI Collusion Research Sprint, an Apart Research Sprint},
howpublished = {\url{https://apartresearch.com/sprints/projects/inherited-collusion-replacing-an-overcharging-ai-pricing-agent-doesnt-fix-it-but-one-past-example-of-a-cheaper-price-earning-more-can-ahzf}},
url = {https://apartresearch.com/sprints/projects/inherited-collusion-replacing-an-overcharging-ai-pricing-agent-doesnt-fix-it-but-one-past-example-of-a-cheaper-price-earning-more-can-ahzf}
}More from AI Collusion Research Sprint
- View project: Collusion, Competion and Collapse
Collusion, Competion and Collapse
Atelier Alex Cline
Do AI traders collude when nobody tells them to? We built agora, a six-market benchmark with exact competitive and collusive benchmarks, and ran seven open-weight 2-4B models in 590 completed games under five …
- View project: Making AI Guardrails Understandable and Testable: A Framework Illustrated by a Simulated Bond Market
Making AI Guardrails Understandable and Testable: A Framework Illustrated by a Simulated Bond Market
Rogue Agents in Jail 🕵️🕵️♀️👮♂️
In order to advance AI safety research into shaping public policy, the development of technical controls needs to have a clear purpose, evidence, and limitations that are understandable for the people responsible for …
- View project: Extending Information-Theoretic Collusion Detection to Large Language Model Agents
Extending Information-Theoretic Collusion Detection to Large Language Model Agents
Gamma Ray
We test whether the information-theoretic collusion detector of Bonjour et al, validated on scripted agents, works on LLM agents. Gemma, Mistral and Qwen played 1000 rounds of three-player Rock-Paper-Scissors in three …