When the Monitor Arrives
Yelarys Yertaiuly · Team Shorting my p(doom)
Submitted to AI Collusion Research Sprint. Sprint projects are early-stage work by participants, not Apart Research publications.
We added an unannounced LLM monitor (Mistral-Small-24B) to a simulated market where three LLM sellers (Qwen3-32B) could message each other, and fined every message it judged to be coordination. To tell stopping apart from rewording, a separate model labeled every message using the sellers’ private notes, over eight seeds per condition in two setups. Fines cut coordination attempts by half or more, but the monitor missed many of the attempts that remained, and the sellers’ notes suggest most were worded on purpose to avoid looking like coordination. When sellers were told buyers would pay more, missed attempts rose from 1% to 15% of all messages in every seed. A stricter monitor instruction caught most of them, but two-thirds of its flags were not coordination attempts.
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@misc{yertaiuly2026monitor,
title = {{When the Monitor Arrives}},
author = {Yelarys Yertaiuly},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
note = {Submitted to AI Collusion Research Sprint, an Apart Research Sprint},
howpublished = {\url{https://apartresearch.com/sprints/projects/when-the-monitor-arrives-fpzr}},
url = {https://apartresearch.com/sprints/projects/when-the-monitor-arrives-fpzr}
}More from AI Collusion Research Sprint
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