Skip to content
Sprint projectOct 26, 2026

The Cartel Outlives Its Members: Inherited Price History Sustains LLM Pricing Cartels After Agent Replacement

Silu Sharma, Sanket Sharma · Team Buddy of Thesus

Submitted to AI Collusion Research Sprint. Sprint projects are early-stage work by participants, not Apart Research publications.

Read the report

Report: The Cartel Outlives Its Members: Inherited Price History Sustains LLM Pricing Cartels After Agent Replacement

Code (opens in new tab)
Share

When pricing algorithms collude, an intuitive remedy is to replace the offending agent. We test this for large language model (LLM) agents in a repeated Bertrand duopoly. Gemini 3.8 Flash agents told only to maximize long-run profit formed supracompetitive cartels in 7 of 8 runs (mean normalized gain 0.89, where 0 is competitive and 1 is monopoly), reasoning explicitly about cooperation and retaliation. We branched each cartel at round 99 and replaced members. Swapping one firm for GPT-6 Luna, a model that never colluded even when instructed to, left most of the markup in place (gain 0.72). Luna almost never reasoned about cooperation (coordination vocabulary in 5% of rounds, against 60–80% for Gemini). Replacing both firms with Claude Haiku 5.5, so that no original member remained, still kept half the markup (0.52). The same newcomers given a competitive history stayed competitive (0.05). A 2×2 design crossing incumbent presence with history visibility attributes persistence mainly to the inherited history (+0.20 gain) rather than the surviving incumbent (+0.05). Limiting newcomers to the last 10 rounds of data cut this to 0.17, but a one-round memory locked cartel prices in (0.94). Under replacement, prices eroded only slowly. Only a newcomer explicitly instructed to avoid collusion collapsed the cartel quickly (0.15). LLM cartels can thus outlive all their original members, sustained by newcomers that show almost no collusive reasoning, which challenges intent-based antitrust enforcement. Remedies should target agent instructions and shared data, not only which agent is deployed.

Reviews

Judging this Sprint?

Review “The Cartel Outlives Its Members: Inherited Price History Sustains LLM Pricing Cartels After Agent Replacement”

Your public critique appears on the project page without your name. Reviews of strong projects are shared with funders, as you choose below.

Not shown on the project page.

Shown on the project page, without your name.

Only the Apart team reads this, and funders if you agree below.

Decline to score

Only when the quality of the writing makes the work impossible to follow. Say why in your private critique; the project page shows only that a judge declined, not why.

How much would this matter for the field if it worked? How innovative is it? For scores of 4-5: is this actually new to the field, or replicating recent work?

Scoring guide
  1. 1Negligible. No clear problem addressed, or no meaningful novelty.
  2. 2Limited. Addresses a real problem but with a generic or well-trodden approach. Incremental at best.
  3. 3Moderate. Clear problem with a reasonable approach; some novelty in framing or method beyond routine application of existing tools.
  4. 4Significant. Important problem with an original approach, or identifies a neglected problem area. A valuable contribution others could build on.
  5. 5Exceptional. Tackles a critical problem with a genuinely novel approach, or opens a new research direction. Clear theory of change. You'd be excited to share this with researchers in the area.

How sound are methodology, implementation, and findings?

Scoring guide
  1. 1Seriously flawed. Methodology broken, results uninterpretable, or implementation doesn't work.
  2. 2Weak. Approach has significant gaps: missing validation, flawed experimental design, or incomplete implementation.
  3. 3Competent. Technically solid given the short duration. Methodology makes sense, results are interpretable, limitations acknowledged, work builds toward clear conclusions.
  4. 4Strong. Thorough methodology with convincing validation. Results clearly support conclusions. Immediately useful for future work.
  5. 5Exceptional. Ambitious scope executed rigorously. Surprising findings, novel methods, or unusually robust validation.

How clearly are work, findings, and impact potential communicated?

Scoring guide
  1. 1Incomprehensible. Cannot determine what the project is actually claiming or doing.
  2. 2Hard to follow. Key information buried, missing, or diluted by excessive length. Significant effort to extract main points.
  3. 3Clear enough. Can understand the problem, approach, and results without undue effort. Core content clearly present: problem, method, findings, limitations.
  4. 4Well presented. Easy to follow, well-structured, appropriate level of detail. Target audience would get it quickly.
  5. 5Exceptionally clear. A pleasure to read. Complex ideas made accessible. Could serve as a model for how to present this type of work.
Sharing your name *

When we share a strong project with funders, your name, scores and public critique go with it, confidentially; this choice is only about whether your name is public. If you think this project deserves funding, please also endorse it: that carries the most weight.

Share my private critique with funders *

See our Privacy Policy.

No public critique yet.

Cite this project

@misc{sharma2026cartel,
  title = {{The Cartel Outlives Its Members: Inherited Price History Sustains LLM Pricing Cartels After Agent Replacement}},
  author = {Silu Sharma and Sanket Sharma},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  note = {Submitted to AI Collusion Research Sprint, an Apart Research Sprint},
  howpublished = {\url{https://apartresearch.com/sprints/projects/the-cartel-outlives-its-members-inherited-price-history-sustains-llm-pricing-cartels-after-agent-replacement-ggns}},
  url = {https://apartresearch.com/sprints/projects/the-cartel-outlives-its-members-inherited-price-history-sustains-llm-pricing-cartels-after-agent-replacement-ggns}
}