The Undercover Firm: Inviting LLM Pricing Agents to Collude, and Watching What They Say and Do
Harshita Adlakha, Paras Adlakha · Team The Undercover Firm
Submitted to AI Collusion Research Sprint. Sprint projects are early-stage work by participants, not Apart Research publications.
Competition authorities use undercover agents and treat even an unaccepted invitation to collude as unlawful, yet no study has placed a trusted agent that offers collusion inside a market of LLM agents. In a repeated three-firm Bertrand market, two LLM sellers compete with a scripted undercover firm whose prices are identical in every condition; only its private message varies: none, a benign request, a price hint, or a direct offer to fix prices at the monopoly level. Across 308 episodes (four OpenAI models, 9,856 seller decisions) we record what sellers say and what they price. For gpt-4.1-mini, which competes at the Nash price when left alone, one private message moves the market most of the way to monopoly (price gain +0.70 for the offer, +0.84 for the hint; 0 = Nash, 1 = monopoly; p ≤ 0.001), while the same price move without words does nothing. The hint is as effective as the offer but was reported to the authority in 4 of 128 cases, against 51 of 128. Where baselines are competitive, a verbal "yes" identifies sellers that raise prices with precision 0.76 and recall 0.82. A compliance instruction silences acceptances in three models but leaves gpt-4o-mini at monopoly prices. Undercover offers are a cheap audit probe, but words alone are weak evidence.

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@misc{adlakha2026undercover,
title = {{The Undercover Firm: Inviting LLM Pricing Agents to Collude, and Watching What They Say and Do}},
author = {Harshita Adlakha and Paras Adlakha},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
note = {Submitted to AI Collusion Research Sprint, an Apart Research Sprint},
howpublished = {\url{https://apartresearch.com/sprints/projects/the-undercover-firm-inviting-llm-pricing-agents-to-collude-and-watching-what-they-say-and-do-r4gk}},
url = {https://apartresearch.com/sprints/projects/the-undercover-firm-inviting-llm-pricing-agents-to-collude-and-watching-what-they-say-and-do-r4gk}
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